In Reply to: Re: Speculation re. compulsory transfer by IBM US of employees to cash balance plan posted by GrumpyGuts on 07 March 2003 at 09:46:44:
GG,
I don't know why Spigott put the email he/she received on this message board, but I assume it was something he/she was concerned about and they hoped for more information. He/she was careful to label it as speculation, so nobody could get the wrong impression. Did you expect the Webmaster to censor it because it was speculation?
Of course, anything about what IBM might do is speculation until it happens, but what has happened historically is not speculation. IBM did force people off the US final salary plan and would have moved more if there had not been so much opposition. There is legislation moving through the US system now which all commentators agree will make it easier for corporations to make such moves. Armonk does have a solid record of cheapening US pension schemes right up to margin (and beyond according to some class actions) of the law. So the speculation isn't entirely ungrounded.
Ignoring some prospect until it actually happens is not always best policy. In fact, as the US websites show, many people are being pro-active is their attempts to stop the legislative changes.
I have re-read Newsletter 15 and I cannot see how any reasonable person would interpret it as comparing the severity of war, air disasters, and pension policy. It does address the process of decision makers assessing complex situations, and the relevance of pattern of behaviour to that.